Licensed and Unlicensed Cultivation Across Ban and Permit Jurisdictions

outdoor cannabis plant growing from soil

Project Overview

This project aimed to assess unlicensed cannabis production and its spatial distribution over time, to compare these assessments with licensed market development, and to investigate the factors that affect (or do not affect) variation in unlicensed production across space and time.

The project pursues three primary objectives.

    1. To utilize innovative tools and methods to assess the amount and geographical variation of unlicensed cannabis cultivation over time, specifically since the establishment of state regulations in 2018.
    2. To analyze how California’s legal supply chain has altered since the State issued permanent regulations.
    3. To correlate this spatiotemporal evaluation of unlicensed cannabis cultivation to a fine-grained analysis of local policy and social dynamics. 

Findings

The four guiding objectives

Assessing unlicensed production amounts and geography

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Identifying Factors Influencing the Observed Extent of Unlicensed Cultivation

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Comparing Licensed and Unlicensed Production and Estimate Leakage of Licensed Product into Unlicensed Market

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Assessing Potential for Environmental Impacts of Unlicensed Production in Ban and Permit Counties

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Assessing unlicensed production amounts and geography

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Identifying Factors Influencing the Observed Extent of Unlicensed Cultivation

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Comparing Licensed and Unlicensed Production and Estimate Leakage of Licensed Product into Unlicensed Market

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Assessing Potential for Environmental Impacts of Unlicensed Production in Ban and Permit Counties

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Research Methods

Mapping & Modeling

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Ethnographic Case Studies

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Licensed Market Data Analysis

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Policy Review

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Model Formation

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Energy Data Analysis

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Case Studies

Four ethnographers were spread across California to do case studies examining unlicensed cultivation in different counties.

Siskiyou

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Nevada

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Mendocino

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Lake

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Riverside

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Trinity

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Key Takeaways

Unlicensed cultivation has diminished to 2018 levels after a brief boom.

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Establishing a broad network of licensed cannabis farms is the most effect deterrent against unlicensed cultivation.

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Data and Results

Policy Recommendations

General address of unlicensed cultivation; Specific address of CA policy

Enforcement

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Permitting

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Economics/Market Interventions

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Bans

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Research

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Regulatory Design

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Environmental Policy/Enforcement

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Low-income Counties

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Acknowledgements

We are deeply grateful to the individuals who generously shared their time, knowledge, experiences, and understanding with us. We also thank the representatives at the Department of Cannabis Control, METRC, the State Water Resources Control Board, PG&E, and SoCal Edison who responded to our requests and questions.

We also want to acknowledge the time and efforts of the University of California, Berkeley students, whose work as research assistants helped us further our analysis of the findings. Undergraduate research assistants spent countless hours conducting background research, writing, and working with GIS. The work of undergraduates greatly assisted us: Anhika Marie Bui, Cate Carlson, Rebekah Derris Murphy, Iroha Harada, Mia Hsu Puzzo, Emily Ma, Daniel Rodriguez, Alessandra Soberanes, McCree Tang, Martina Anne Arendain, Martina Arendain, Peri Zoe Yildirim-Stanley, Ryan Jen Wong, Alexa Marie Weiss, Hannah Welke, and Xiaoya Yuan, Audrey Theresa Shao, Hennessy Jones, Danicka G Sailer, Ellie Suh, Noah Alexander Menz, and Vincent Xuan Nghiem.

A special thank you to Pheng Lor for his administrative and organizational support.

Finally, we would like to recognize the institutional and administrative support provided by the Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management at the University of California system and the Cannabis Research Center.

The University of California, Berkeley, submits this Final Report in fulfillment of contract #93284, “Licensed and Unlicensed Cultivation Across Ban and Permit Jurisdictions,” under the grant provided by the California Department of Cannabis Control.